The Indian-Afghan tango, what next?

The recently concluded elections in Afghanistan have brought about a status quo that is to India’s advantage. Afghanistan went into elections with much fan fare trumpeting the success of democracy and defeat of Al-Qaeda. Little did anyone realize the extent of corruption and scandal that were to unfold. Allegation of wide spread voter fraud, corruption and threat by Taliban were some of the issues that Hamid Karzai had to contend with but eventually managed to win the election unopposed.

What went wrong in the elections and build up to elections?

1. During the buildup to the elections the national radio of Afghanistan gave the incumbent President Hamid Karzai almost 71% of the total coverage. This meant Karzai got more than a fair share of the much needed publicity and coverage.
2. Karzai along with other Presidential nominees had two Vice Presidential nominees. One reason was to include as many local warlords from different regions as possible into the Administration to satisfy the different clans. Unfortunately this meant including many of the warlords identified as renowned drug traffickers. This list also included the notoriously famous half brother of President Karzai – Ahmed Wali Karzai.
3. Restricted movement of the candidates due to security threat. Since the incumbent had the Presidential security coverage he was able to and did get an advantage over his political adversaries. All of the remaining candidate movements were severely restricted.
4. And then there were the namesake debates. A total of two with Karzai skipping the first accusing bias against him and Abdullah skipping the later one

Elections continued unabated amongst wide spread violence fraud. The independent commission overseeing the election process came out strongly stating that every one in three votes was fraudulent. The commission stated that about 10% votes for Karzai were suspect resulting in his overall tally dropping less than 50% all of which led to the decision to conduct a runoff.

Karzai runs off without a runoff

The West needed the runoff to justify its installation and continued support to Karzai government. The runoff also provided some vindication for the opposition who were all along accusing Karzai of government funded voter fraud. Much to the chagrin of the US, Karzai came out and accepted the allegation of voter fraud.

Given the fledgling democracy of Afghanistan and the faltering steps it is taking towards the establishment of a legitimate peoples’ government, one needs to realize that there will never be an election comparable to the puritan levels of the West. In a country with infrastructure at such infancy it is not prudent to expect transparency given the most recent history of the country.

And so the runoff date was set and it was certain that Karzai would be re-elected. Sensing defeat Abdullah did the expected. He withdrew from the runoff. Karzai was declared the winner unopposed and the runoff cancelled. It could very well trun out that this turn of events is more of a curse than a blessing for Karzai as it puts a big question mark on the legitimacy on his government within and outside Afghanistan. Already Obama faces stiff challenges in convincing his own people to continue supporting the Karzai government not to mention the skepticism in which Karzai is viewed by the European Union countries.

India congratulates

With victory come the wishes. Among the first few to congratulate Karzai on his win was India. In addition to the note of congratulations, Indian foreign ministry stated that it is now the responsibility of the international community to come forward to stand by Afghans, ensure its stability and speed up the development. India also stated that it will stand by the Afghanistan fully committed to its development mainly infrastructure.

India with $1.2 billion is the largest regional donor and among the top 10 worldwide. Since the fall of the Taliban, India has jumped at the opportunity to build consulates within the close proximity of Pakistan border. In total it has opened about 4 consulates at Kandahar, Jalalabad, Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif. Apart from this India has invested heavily by pumping millions and also sending huge delegates of engineers for the development activities. Kabul’s claim of 24 hour electricity supply was largely due to the role and efforts of the Indian engineers. India is working to also put together electricity lines, building hundreds of miles of roads, hospitals, schools and are also helping build the state police.

Influence thru Afghan

India has varying levels of interest for its huge involvement and investment in Afghanistan. Traditionally before the 1947 partition, Indian National Congress was very active in the North West Frontier Province of the now Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. The legendary Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan or Frontier Gandhi was an ardent fan of India. Even today many places in this area of NWFP and in Afghanistan Indian folk songs and music are very popular.

Apart from the cultural interest Afghanistan is strategically located and provides access into West Asia and then into Europe. With its growing economy and clout, India is looking to expand its influence in the region and in the world. To achieve this India needs to show it is a responsible nation and can take care of its responsibility within its own region.

National Security is also another reason why India needs a stable Afghan. India needs a stable Afghanistan to counter Pakistan. This will ensure that the western Indian border is less volatile enabling India to concentrate on pressing internal issues such as development and the China factor.

Next Steps

India needs to increase its trade relations with Afghanistan. Today it is a one way street, a unidirectional flow of funds and resources. But soon when Afghanistan can stand on its own, trade relations with India are bound to improve. Afghan’s rugs, nuts, fruits, etc are very popular in India and both countries share many common traditions. India has already donated the first national aircraft to Afghanistan and can do more in other areas such as sports, exchange programs, bi-lateral ties, etc.

And the big prize…

Once India establishes itself firmly it will have easy access to the Middle East and the oil rich nations. Oil is what drives many a foreign policy these days and India is playing its cards close to its chest. A friendly Afghanistan will open up access to precious oil and India needs oil to satisfy its growing economy. Access to cheaper oil will mean faster and a more sustainable growth and the current tango between the two countries could very well be the start to a long and prosperous relationship.